Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates finally caught a break yesterday. And they fell by a worthwhile amount. Be grateful for small mercies.
So far this morning, it’s looking as if mortgage rates today might fall again. But that could change as the day progresses.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||5.332%||5.358%||-0.13%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||4.542%||4.582%||-0.17%|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||5.314%||5.356%||-0.19%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||4.308%||4.377%||-0.24%|
|30 year fixed FHA||5.313%||6.074%||-0.1%|
|15 year fixed FHA||4.679%||4.965%||-0.39%|
|30 year fixed VA||5.128%||5.344%||+0.22%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
We’ve seen plenty of falls similar to yesterday’s this month and this year. And, on each occasion, they’ve not lasted, soon being outweighed by even bigger rises.
Might this one be different? Well, it may be. Read on to discover why yesterday’s fall might have been the start of something new.
Unfortunately, I suspect yesterday’s and today’s drops will prove fleeting, too. But there are real grounds for hoping I’m wrong.
In the meantime, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes dropped to 2.74% from 2.78%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices rose to $100.10 from $96.27 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
- Gold prices climbed to $1,911 from $1,898 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — edged higher to 37 from 35 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might drop further. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
What happened in markets yesterday? Well, CNN Business summed it up well in its Nightcap e-newsletter last evening:
It took a while, but Wall Street appears to be finally seeing the big picture: The Fed’s pandemic-era gravy train is gone, inflation is eating into corporate profits, Russia isn’t backing down from Ukraine, and China isn’t backing down from its relentless Covid-19 fight. In other words, the party’s over.
All that’s true. And it might cause a global economic slowdown, which would be good news for mortgage rates but not much else. As we say here every day, “Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble.”
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves
However, it’s still too soon to be sure that markets are yet willing to see that bigger picture for long. After all, Wall Street has known about all those economic issues CNN listed for weeks or months. Has enough suddenly changed since the end of last week for the current sentiment to survive long?
Much may depend on domestic economic reports due later this week. Gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the first quarter of this year will be published on Thursday. And a critical inflation measure will be out Friday. If both confirm that this new gloom is justified, we just might see more falls in mortgage rates.
However, that’s not certain. And, even if the economy is in trouble, the Federal Reserve is still likely to implement policies that should push mortgage rates higher.
So, we may soon see a battle between the upward forces exerted by the Fed and downward ones coming from the economy. And the winner of that is a tough one to predict.
I’m afraid we’ll just have to wait to see how all this plays out. In the meantime, I’d be cautious if I were you.
Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.
Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, the rises have grown more pronounced since last September.
Freddie’s Apr. 21 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.11% (with 0.8 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5%.
Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Apr. 19, Freddie’s on Apr. 18, and the MBA’s on Apr. 13.
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. I’m afraid I’m less optimistic than any of them.
Find your lowest rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.